UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
SCHEDULE 14A
Proxy Statement Pursuant to Section 14(a) of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934
Filed by the Registrant |
Filed by a Party other than the Registrant |
Check the appropriate box:
Preliminary Proxy Statement |
Confidential, for Use of the Commission Only (as permitted by Rule 14a-6(e)(2)) |
Definitive Proxy Statement |
Definitive Additional Materials |
Soliciting Material Pursuant to §240.14a-12 |
THE TOPPS COMPANY, INC.
(Name of Registrant as Specified In Its Charter)
(Name of Person(s) Filing Proxy Statement, if Other Than the Registrant)
Payment of Filing Fee (Check the appropriate box):
No fee required. |
Fee computed on table below per Exchange Act Rules 14a-6(i)(1) and 0-11. |
(1) | Title of each class of securities to which transaction applies: |
Common Stock, $0.01 par value per share
(2) | Aggregate number of securities to which transaction applies: |
41,678,612 shares of Common Stock of The Topps Company, Inc. (includes 2,938,440 shares underlying options to purchase Common Stock, of which options to purchase 2,261,124 shares are in-the-money and eligible to receive consideration in the transaction, and 22,407 shares of restricted stock)
(3) | Per unit price or other underlying value of transaction computed pursuant to Exchange Act Rule 0-11 (set forth the amount on which the filing fee is calculated and state how it was determined): |
(4) | Proposed maximum aggregate value of transaction: |
$385,591,102
(5) | Total fee paid: |
$11,831.78
Fee paid previously with preliminary materials. |
Check box if any part of the fee is offset as provided by Exchange Act Rule 0-11(a)(2) and identify the filing for which the offsetting fee was paid previously. Identify the previous filing by registration statement number, or the form or schedule and the date of its filing. |
(1) | Amount Previously Paid: |
(2) | Form, Schedule or Registration Statement No.: |
(3) | Filing Party: |
(4) | Date Filed: |
Presentation to Investors
June 2007
The Topps Company, Inc.
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation may contain statements that are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of the terms: expect(s), intend(s), may, plan(s), should, could, will, believe(s), anticipate(s), estimate(s), or similar terms. The Topps Company, Inc. (Topps or the Company) or its representatives may also make similar forward-looking statements from time to time orally or in writing. You are cautioned that these forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, or other factors that may cause (and in some cases have caused) actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the following:
the risk that the merger transaction described in this presentation may not be consummated in a timely manner, if at all;
the inability to obtain the required vote for approval of the Companys stockholders in order to consummate the merger;
the outcome of any legal proceeding instituted against Topps and/or others in connection with the proposed merger;
the failure of the conditions to the consummation of the merger to be satisfied;
the termination of the merger agreement prior to the consummation of the merger;
notwithstanding the fact that there is no financing condition to the merger, the inability of Tornante/MDP to obtain the financing required to pay the merger consideration and/or to otherwise consummate the merger and the other transactions contemplated by the merger agreement;
the businesses of Topps suffering as a result of uncertainty surrounding the merger, including, but not limited to, potential difficulties in employee retention, adverse effects on client or customer relationships and disruption of current plans or operations, or, if the merger agreement is terminated or the merger otherwise fails to occur, the uncertainties associated with any anticipated, potential or actual subsequent attempt to acquire Topps;
the diversion of Topps managements attention from ongoing business operations;
the enactment or imposition of future regulatory or legislative actions that adversely affect Topps or any industry or jurisdiction in which it operates its businesses;
the adverse effects of other economic, business and/or competitive factors; and
other risks detailed in the Companys current filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent filings on Form 10-K or Form 10-Q, which discuss these and other important risk factors concerning the Companys operations.
These factors may not constitute all factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in any forward-looking statement. Topps operates in a continually changing business environment and new factors emerge from time to time. The Company cannot predict such factors nor can its assess the impact, if any, of such factors on its financial position or its results of operations or whether or when the merger will be consummated. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as a predictor of actual results.
Many of the factors that will determine the Companys future results or whether or when the merger will be consummated are beyond its ability to control or predict. In light of the significant uncertainties inherent in the forward-looking statements contained herein, you should not rely on forward-looking statements.
Additional factors that may affect the future results of Topps are set forth in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available via the Internet at www.topps.com or www.sec.gov. Neither Topps nor any of its representatives undertakes any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Important Information has been Filed with the SEC
In connection with the proposed merger agreement, Topps has filed a definitive proxy statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Investors and security holders are advised to read the definitive proxy statement, because it contains important information about the merger and the parties thereto. Investors and security holders may obtain free copies of the definitive proxy statement and other documents filed by Topps at its website at www.topps.com or the Securities and Exchange Commissions website at www.sec.gov. The definitive proxy statement and such other documents may also be obtained for free from Topps by directing such request to Topps proxy solicitor, MacKenzie Partners, Inc. at 105 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016, telephone (800) 322-2885.
Topps and its directors, executive officers and other members of its management and employees may be deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies from its stockholders in connection with the proposed merger. Information concerning the interests of these participants in the solicitation, which may be different than those of Topps stockholders generally, is set forth in Topps proxy statements and Annual Reports on Form 10-K that have been previously filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in the definitive proxy statement relating to the merger.
Table of Contents
Agenda
I.
Executive Summary
II.
Current Business Dynamics
III.
Valuation
IV.
The Process
V.
Why You Should Reject Crescendo Arguments
VI.
Conclusion
1
Executive Summary
2
Transaction Overview
Executive Summary
$191 million (54% of acquisition financing)
Equity Contribution
$385.6 million
Equity Value (1)
$304.0 million
Enterprise Value (2)
EV/Sales = 0.93x
EV/EBITDA = 13.1x
P/E = 27.1x
FY2007 Transaction
Multiples (3)
Buyer Group
Madison
Dearborn Partners, LLC (MDP)
One of the largest and most experienced private
equity
investment firms in the United States with more than $14 billion of equity
capital under
management
This transaction is NOT a management-led buyout
$9.75 cash offer per share for outstanding common stock of Topps
Price per Share
Consortium formed by:
The
Tornante Company, LLC (Tornante)
Privately held investment company founded in
2005 by Michael Eisner,
former Chairman and CEO of The Walt Disney Company. Tornante
makes investments in and incubates companies and opportunities in the media
and Entertainment
space
___________________________
1.
Based on 38,717,765 shares outstanding, 2,938,440 options outstanding of which 2,261,124 are in-the-money and eligible to receive consideration in the transaction and 22,407 restricted shares, as of March 2, 2007 and in accordance with the disclosures in the Merger Agreement.
2.
Based on a net cash position of $81.6m as of March 3, 2007.
3.
Based on FY2007 Net Sales of $326.7m, EBITDA of $23.2m and diluted EPS of $0.36 per share; Financials are adjusted for pre-tax exceptional items.
3
Board Recommendation
Executive Summary
The
Board of Directors believes that the merger is in the best interest of
stockholders and therefore
recommends to vote FOR the proposed
transaction.
4
Managements successful restructuring was instrumental in receiving the attractive $9.75 price
Topps faces significant company-specific and broader industry challenges
The transaction offers stockholders certainty of value at attractive valuation multiples and premium
The
offer is the ONLY binding and fully-financed offer received as a result of an
extensive and thorough
process that started over two years ago
The 40-day Go-Shop period provided for a thorough market check of Tornante/MDPs offer
The
non-binding indication of interest received from Upper Deck is at an attractive
price level but key
issues have not been resolved yet (lack of ANY evidence
as to ability to finance, unwillingness to
take sufficient regulatory risk,
inadequate break-up fee for failure of Upper Deck to close)
Crescendos plan is vague and offers nothing new and its margin and price expectations are unrealistic
If Crescendo wants to take control of the Company, they should make a superior proposal
The Topps Company
Executive Summary
Candy
43%
Gum
2%
Sports
42%
Non-Sports
13%
FY2007 Net Sales by Business
U.S.
72%
Europe
23%
Other
5%
FY2007 Net Sales by Geography
Confectionery
Entertainment
Founded
in 1938, The Topps Company, Inc. (Topps or the
Company), through its business segments, is a leading creator and
marketer of distinctive Confectionery and Entertainment products in the
U.S. and abroad
Headquartered in New York
Offices in Pennsylvania, Washington, the U.K., Ireland, Italy and Argentina
Distributes its products in many countries around the world
Selectively acquired businesses in order to diversify and strengthen its footprint
Acquired
Merlin Publishing International, a U.K.-based marketer of licensed
collectibles, primarily sticker album collections in
1995
Acquired WizKids, LLC, a designer and marketer of collectible strategy games in 2003
Key Financials
For
the year ended March 3, 2007, the Company recorded Net Sales of $326.7m (+11.2%
vs. $293.8m in FY2006) and EBITDA of
$23.2m (7.1% margin)
___________________________
Source: Company filings; FY2007 ending March 3, 2007.
5
Topps Businesses
Executive Summary
Marketer
of branded products, including trading cards,
sticker album
collections
and
branded collectible strategy
games
Sports
products include trading cards for Major League
Baseball, the National
Basketball Association, and the
National Football League; and sticker
albums featuring
players from the English Premier League and the Italian
Football League
Non-Sports
products include trading cards and sticker
albums of Entertainment
properties (e.g. Pokémon,
Wacky
Packs, Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, WWE)
and
constructible strategy games (e.g.
Pirates, HeroClix)
designed and marketed by WizKids, a wholly-owned
subsidiary
Leading
marketer of unique,
well-known, youth-targeted
candy and bubble gum brands
Branded
lollipops include Ring
Pop, Push Pop, Baby Bottle
Pop, Juicy Drop Pop and
recently launched
Vertigo
Distributes
and markets Bazooka
brand bubble gum,
originally introduced in 1947
Licensed
Confectionery products include candy containers
featuring
Pokèmon
and Winx
properties, and World
Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)
lollipops
ENTERTAINMENT
CONFECTIONERY
6
Current Business Dynamics
Executive Summary
7
In 2005, Topps launched a restructuring program
Enhanced earnings and profitability
Addressed headwinds facing both businesses
Success of which was instrumental in receiving the attractive $9.75 per share offer
Significant company-specific and broader industry challenges exist
Confectionery segment: Topps is sub-scale player in a consolidating and increasingly competitive environment
Focus on declining and volatile Lollipop segment
Increasing pressure to secure and maintain shelf-space
Heavy reliance on one third-party manufacturer for the sourcing of most products
Entertainment segment: decline of the U.S. Sports Trading Cards market over the last decade
Benefit from recent reallocation of market share, but future growth depends on bringing kids back to sports cards collecting
Ongoing turnaround of WizKids still at early stages and largely unproven
Significant business risks remain going forward
Management plan is underpinned by a number of critical assumptions characterized by substantial execution risk
High projected growth for Confectionery depends mostly on success of new product introductions
Strong growth for Entertainment predicated on revival of U.S. Sports Trading Cards market and successful turnaround of WizKids
Environment of increasing raw material prices
Background To The Merger
The transaction is the result of an extensive and thorough process that started over two years ago.
The $9.75 offer by Tornante/MDP is the ONLY binding and fully-financed offer received.
Executive Summary
2004
2005
2006
2007
Strategic Review
Confectionery Sale Process
Sale Process
Tornante/MDP Transaction
Unsolicited
Approach
by Upper Deck
February 2005
Lehman
Brothers
appointed
Begin
sale of
Confectionery
September 2005
End
of Confectionery
sale process
Launch
of
restructuring
August 2005
Parthenon
presents findings
to Board
March 6, 2007
Announced
transaction with
Tornante/ MDP
May 2006
Topps
receives
unsolicited
approaches
Buyer
A, Buyer
B, Tornante/MDP
May 24, 2007
Submitted
unsolicited
indication of
interest
Began
diligence
review
August 2006
Dissenting
stockholders
elected to the
Board
Jun-Nov 2006
Buyer
A (Jun06)
and Buyer B
(Nov06) decline
continued interest
in Topps
Proxy I
Proxy II
Proxy III
July 2004
Parthenon
retained to
perform strategic
review
8
Go-Shop
April 14, 2007
End
of Go-Shop
period
No
superior offers
emerged
June 13, 2007
Still
NO proof of
financing
Contractual
issues
still unresolved
(regulatory risk,
break-up fee)
Executive Summary
Conducted Thorough Process
February 2005, Lehman Brothers engaged
Study various strategic alternatives, including sale of all or part of Topps
Conducted
a sale process for the Confectionery business with an eye towards doing the
same with the Entertainment business, if
the process was successful
Nine
parties conducted various degrees of due diligence; only two made preliminary
non-binding offers and subsequently declined
further interest
Feedback from potential buyers made clear that several factors rendered the Confectionery business unattractive
In
September 2005, announced termination of sale process and launch of
restructuring program
developed by Parthenon and Topps
management
Second proxy fight commenced April 2006; once again, the dissenting shareholders advocated a sale of all or part of the Company
In May and June 2006, Topps received unsolicited approaches to acquire all shares
Decision of the Board to let bidders conduct diligence review of the Company
View toward receiving a firm offer and negotiating a Go-Shop right
Auction
process and/or public announcement to solicit broadest interest deemed
unattractive in light of: (i) limited interest of
potential bidders in
recently attempted sale of Confectionery business; (ii) declining financial
performance of Confectionery
business; (iii) absence of logical strategic
buyer for entirety of Topps; (iv) low operating profit to support debt in a
leveraged
transaction; (v) potential tax impact of separate sale of
Confectionery and Entertainment businesses; (vi) the Boards belief
that it was widely known in the industry that Topps was for sale; and (vii)
the potential impact of a failed auction on the
Company's ongoing
restructuring effort
9
Executive Summary
Conducted Thorough Process (contd)
Tornante/MDP emerged as a very credible bidder through the sale process
Negotiated Merger agreement through independent directors
Offer remained at price levels higher than those of other parties involved
On December 20, 2006, submitted a $9.24 per share cash offer, which the Board rejected
After extensive negotiations, Tornante/MDP increased their offer to $9.75 cash per share
On March 5, 2007, the Board approved $9.75 per share cash merger agreement with Tornante/MDP
Fully-committed financing provided by Deutsche Bank
40-day Go-Shop period
Reasonable break-up fees negotiated, including lower break-up fee during Go-Shop period
Performed thorough market check during Go-Shop
Contacted 107 potential buyers (strategic and financial), including all parties proposed by all Board members
72
parties declined interest due to: (i) high transaction price/multiples, (ii)
different strategic focus, (iii) limited interest for Topps
categories and (iv) limited interest for Topps brands; 34 parties did
not respond despite numerous attempted contacts
Five parties signed confidentiality agreements and conducted a due diligence review of Topps
No superior proposal emerged
On April 12, 2007, Upper Deck, Topps principal Entertainment competitor, submitted a non-binding indication of interest
Attractive $10.75 per share cash price, but proposal was deficient in a number of respects:
Lack of ANY evidence as to the ability to finance the transaction
Substantial shifting of regulatory risk to Topps
Inadequate $12m cap on liability in the event of breach of a definitive agreement
Upper Deck failed to address the key open issues, despite numerous discussions with Topps advisors
On April 16, 2007, the Board determined that it could not declare Upper Deck an excluded party, despite the attractive price
10
Unsolicited Approach of Upper Deck
Executive Summary
11
On May 24, 2007, Topps received an unsolicited approach from Upper Deck to acquire Topps for $10.75 per share
Accompanied by highly confident letter
NOT a commitment to provide financing
Financing subject to significant number of material conditions, many of which were absent from the Tornante-MDP transaction
Material outstanding issues existed, similar to those that existed at the time of the Go Shop period
Availability of committed financing
Completion of diligence review
Unwillingness to assume sufficient risk associated with a failure to obtain regulatory approval
Insistence of Upper Deck to limit its liability under any definitive agreement
The Company and its advisors promptly began discussions with Upper Deck to see if a superior proposal could be reached
Topps sought and obtained a waiver from Tornante/MDP under the merger agreement to engage in discussions with Upper Deck
Upper Deck and its advisors conducted diligence review of the Company
On
June 5, 2007, Upper Deck filed a lawsuit to seek release from its standstill
obligation under the confidentiality agreement
with Topps
The
confidentiality agreement with Upper Deck is substantially the same as the
confidentiality agreements signed by
Tornante/MDP as well as those of the
other four parties who signed confidentiality agreements during the Go
Shop period
As of June 13, 2007, Upper Deck has not yet appropriately addressed the key outstanding issues
Transaction Maximizes Stockholder Value
Executive Summary
The transaction is the culmination of the Boards extensive, multi-year process to maximize stockholder value.
___________________________
1.
Average closing price for the 2-weeks period that preceded the announcement of the settlement of the proxy contest with Pembridge Capital prior to the 2006 AGM (July 28, 2006).
12
The transaction offers stockholders certainty of value at attractive valuation multiples and premium
$9.75 per share cash offer is the ONLY binding and fully financed offer received
Permitted to pay a Q4 FY2007 dividend of $0.04 per share (effectively raising offer to $9.79 per share)
High implied valuation multiples
Offer price represents a 21% premium over the unaffected market price (1)
High
probability of closing shortly after stockholders approval (HSR approval
and all other antitrust regulatory approvals already
obtained)
Unusually high level of equity contribution enabled the attractive price received
High equity contribution of $191m (54% of acquisition financing)
The transaction is NOT a management led buy-out
Process was at all times driven by key outside independent directors
Topps CEO, who is also the Companys largest stockholder, strongly believes that this transaction maximizes stockholder value
In
order to facilitate the transaction, he agreed to surrender $2.8 million of
compensation to which he was entitled under the
change of control
provisions in his existing employment agreement
Current Business Dynamics
13
Management Led Successful Restructuring
Current Business Dynamics
Managements successful turnaround has driven top-line growth and margin expansion
and ultimately resulted in the attractive $9.75 per share offer.
In September 2005, Topps launched a restructuring program developed by management in collaboration with Parthenon
Reorganization in two business segments with direct P&L responsibility to increase accountability and visibility of costs
Reduced corporate OH through changes in pension and retiree medical programs, reduction of U.S. compensation costs
U.S. Confectionery
Upgraded the organization with key hires of industry talent
Reorganized the sales force to provide channel-specific focus
Rationalized SKU portfolio to reduce complexity and lower costs
Renewed focus on product development with emphasis of fewer, bigger, better products
U.S. Entertainment
Engineered fundamental changes in the U.S. Sports Trading Cards industry to stabilize market and reverse negative trends
Three-pronged strategy of: (i) stopping the madness; (ii) owning the hobby; and (iii) expanding the market
Developed successful high-end product lines aimed at serious collectors
Targeted advertising and new product development to attract kids back into card collecting
The success of the restructuring was instrumental in receiving the attractive $9.75 per share offer
14
But Significant Business Risks Remain Going Forward
Current Business Dynamics
Topps is facing significant company-specific and broader industry challenges.
The management plan is based on several critical assumptions with substantial execution risk.
Topps Confectionery business faces significant strategic challenges
Sub-scale player in a consolidating and increasingly competitive industry
Focus on the declining Lollipop segment
Reliance on placement at highly competitive front-end points of sale
Environment of increasing raw material prices (sugar, plastic, labor)
Increasing pressure from retailers and larger competitors to secure and maintain shelf-space
Heavy reliance on one third-party manufacturer for the sourcing of most products on an exclusive basis
Topps Entertainment business suffered from the continued decline of the U.S. Sports Trading Cards market over the last decade
Recent changes in U.S. Sports licenses expected to stabilize and potentially reverse negative market trends
Business
has benefited from reallocation of market share, although long-term growth
depends on bringing kids back into sports
cards collecting
Ongoing turnaround of WizKids still at early stages and largely unproven
Significant execution risk in the management plan (Management Case) due to a number of critical assumptions:
High projected growth for Confectionery depends mostly on new and largely untested products
Strong growth for Entertainment predicated on revival of U.S. Sports Trading Cards market and successful turnaround of WizKids
Management
developed adjusted projections (Adjusted Case) to predict sensitivity of growth
and earnings to positive but less
optimistic assumptions
Underlying assumptions similar to those of the Management Case
Projected strong top-line growth and margin expansion across businesses
15
$0
$150
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
1
2
3
4
Key Strategic Challenges - Confectionery
Current Business Dynamics
-9.9%
-8.6%
-7.6%
-1.4%
-0.7%
0.8%
5.9%
14.2%
14.7%
23.5%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
U.S. Non Chocolate Confectionery Market (1)
___________________________
NOTE: Source: AC Nielsen.
1.
Change in value for key NCC segments for the period 2004 to 2006.
U.S. NCC Brands Ranking by Sales
($ millions)
Competitors Brands
Topps Brands
Non Choc. Mint
Licorice
Marshmallow
Novelty
Soft/ Chewy
Jelly Beans
Hard Candy
Lollipop
Assortment
Gummi
Topps
Confectionery is a sub-scale player in the $2.5bn
U.S. Non Chocolate Candy
(NCC) market
Relatively
flat market growth drives increasing
competition
Large competitors have consolidated within and across segments
In
the U.S. NCC market, Topps is #17 with 1.3%
share but has a leading
position in the Lollipop
segment (#2, 21.1% share)
Topps
presence in U.S. NCC is focused on the rapidly
declining Lollipop segment
-9.9% decline in the period from 2004 to 2006
Topps has a limited/no presence in growing segments
Increasing
pressure on smaller players like Topps to
secure and maintain shelf-space
Pressure from category managers/large competitors
Topps
is strong on a SKU-basis but less relevant to
the channel on a brand-level
comparison
Substantial
exposure to Wal-Mart (37% of
Confectionery sales including Sams
Club)
16
Key Strategic Challenges Entertainment
Current Business Dynamics
-25%
0%
25%
50%
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
U.S. Sports Trading Cards Market
___________________________
NOTE: SCA Annual Data; Company data.
0
500
1,000
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007E
($ millions)
0
50
100
# of Releases
U.S. Sports Trading Cards Sales
# of Baseball releases per year
Topps - U.S. Sports Net Sales Growth % (FY93-FY07)
Reduced # of licensees:
Baseball: 4 to 2
Football: 4 to 3
Basketball: 3 to 2
Steady
decline of the U.S. Sports Trading Cards market
over the last decade
-8.1% CAGR decline from 1992 to 2007E
Market
declines explained by product proliferation
and average price increases
Kids
have left the market and future growth is
predicated on their return
Recent
changes in licensing structure stabilized the U.S.
Sports Trading Cards
market but revival of growth is
yet unproven
Reduction
in number of licensees across U.S. Sports
Leagues and reduced number of
product releases
Explosive
growth for Topps in FY2007 due in part to
reallocation of market share
Future
growth highly dependent on overall growth of
the market
WizKids
ongoing turnaround effort still at early stages
and largely unproven
Opportunity
to stabilize the core Collectible
Miniature Games business
Collectible
Card Games represent an attractive
opportunity, but segment is highly
competitive and
requires significant investments to compete
17
Financial Projections
Current Business Dynamics
MANAGEMENT Case
ADJUSTED Case
___________________________
Source:
Company filings; Management estimates.
Notes: Financials are adjusted for
pre-tax exceptional items; FY2006 financials correspond to the internal
reporting of the Company, and are marginally different from the reported FY2006
financials (reported FY2006 net sales were $293.8 million). Differences are
related to the different treatment of thePit.com (a business disposed in
FY2006). While in the reported FY2006 financials the results of thePit.com are
included as a post-tax adjustment to net income from continuing operations, in
the internal reporting for FY2006 the financial contribution of thePit.com is
embedded within consolidated figures.
Financial Projections
The
management plan is based on several critical assumptions with substantial
execution risk that predict a
highly favorable outcome of planned growth
and margin expansion initiatives.
Prepared by management in the context of discussions with potential buyers
Presented to ALL potential buyers
Reflects
highly favorable outcome of planned growth and margin expansion
initiatives
Prepared
by management to illustrate sensitivity of growth and earnings to the
underlying assumptions
NOT presented to any of the potential buyers
Reflects
favorable outcome of planned growth and margin expansion
initiatives but
less favorable than in the Management Case
CAGR
($ millions)
FY2006A
FY2007A
FY2008E
FY2009E
FY2010E
FY07-10
Net Sales
294.8
326.7
343.1
387.9
422.7
9.0%
Growth %
10.8%
5.0%
13.1%
9.0%
Contribution Margin
78.9
94.5
102.6
118.0
132.3
11.9%
Margin %
26.8%
28.9%
29.9%
30.4%
31.3%
EBITDA, Segment
35.7
47.2
53.4
65.7
76.8
17.6%
Margin %
12.1%
14.4%
15.6%
16.9%
18.2%
Total Indirect OH
(30.0)
(24.0)
(23.9)
(24.6)
(25.6)
EBITDA
5.6
23.2
29.4
41.0
51.2
30.1%
Margin %
1.9%
7.1%
8.6%
10.6%
12.1%
EBIT
(0.4)
13.2
24.6
36.1
46.3
51.8%
Margin %
(0.1%)
4.0%
7.2%
9.3%
10.9%
Diluted EPS
$0.09
$0.36
$0.48
$0.68
$0.86
33.7%
CAGR
($ millions)
FY2006A
FY2007A
FY2008E
FY2009E
FY2010E
FY07-10
Net Sales
294.8
326.7
332.2
360.9
383.1
5.5%
Growth %
10.8%
1.7%
8.6%
6.2%
Contribution Margin
78.9
94.5
96.5
108.9
118.4
7.8%
Margin %
26.8%
28.9%
29.1%
30.2%
30.9%
EBITDA, Segment
35.7
47.2
48.6
56.8
63.1
10.2%
Margin %
12.1%
14.4%
14.6%
15.7%
16.5%
Total Indirect OH
(30.0)
(24.0)
(23.0)
(24.0)
(24.7)
EBITDA
5.6
23.2
25.7
32.8
38.4
18.3%
Margin %
1.9%
7.1%
7.7%
9.1%
10.0%
EBIT
(0.4)
13.2
21.0
28.2
34.0
36.9%
Margin %
(0.1%)
4.0%
6.3%
7.8%
8.9%
Diluted EPS
$0.09
$0.36
$0.42
$0.54
$0.64
21.4%
18
MANAGEMENT Case
Current Business Dynamics
The
MANAGEMENT Case predicts very significant top-line growth and margin expansion
across both the
Confectionery and the Entertainment businesses.
___________________________
Source: Company filings; Management estimates.
Historical and Projected Financials
217.0
188.7
159.2
148.1
144.3
143.8
147.2
146.9
152.1
170.7
129.7
95.2
84.5
205.7
199.2
183.9
178.5
150.6
150.5
147.7
143.2
148.1
266.7
244.5
134.2
156.7
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Net Sales, $m
Confectionery
Entertainment
241.3
229.4
374.2
437.4
300.2
290.1
294.9
294.2
294.8
326.7
343.1
387.9
422.7
Pokémon
EBITDA ($m)
Margin %
6.0
2.5%
28.1
12.2%
98.9
26.4%
126.3
28.9%
39.7
13.2%
27.4
9.5%
21.9
7.4%
21.5
7.3%
5.6
1.9%
23.2
7.1%
41.0
10.6%
51.2
12.1%
29.4
8.6%
CAGR
98-07
6.4%
1.5%
3.4%
CAGR
07-10
13.6%
4.8%
9.0%
19
MANAGEMENT Case - Key Assumptions
Current Business Dynamics
CONFECTIONERY
ENTERTAINMENT
___________________________
1.
North American market; Gross Sales for existing products are as of FY2007; Gross Sales for new products are as of FY2010.
2.
Line indicates EBITDA Margin by segment, which is after the allocation of Direct OH but before the allocation of Indirect OH.
Key Underlying Assumptions
0
200
($ millions)
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Base Business
New Products
North American Gross Sales Evolution
Product Portfolio Evolution (1)
0
($ millions)
50
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Existing Products
New Products
0
($ millions)
150
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
U.S. Sports Gross Sales Evolution
WizKids Gross Sales and Margin Evolution (2)
Projected growth highly dependent on continued growth of U.S. Sports
Following
reallocation of market share in FY2007, growth in future
years is
predicated on sustained growth of overall market
Implied reversal of market decline of last decade
Successful
turnaround of WizKids is central to achieving projected
objectives
Projected growth is almost entirely predicated on new product launches
Vertigo was launched recently but it is early to assess true potential
Other new products are currently in various stages of development
Vertigo
is
projected to become by far the largest product in Topps
portfolio
over the projected period
Implies one of the most successful launches in Topps history
0%
15%
0
($ millions)
30
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
20
ADJUSTED Case
Current Business Dynamics
Historical and Projected Financials
The ADJUSTED Case predicts strong top-line growth and margin expansion across both the
Confectionery and the Entertainment businesses.
___________________________
Source: Company filings; Management estimates.
191.2
172.1
154.4
148.1
144.3
143.8
147.2
146.9
152.1
170.7
129.7
95.2
84.5
191.9
188.8
177.8
178.5
150.6
150.5
147.7
143.2
148.1
266.7
244.5
134.2
156.7
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Net Sales, $m
Confectionery
Entertainment
241.3
229.4
374.2
437.4
300.2
290.1
294.9
294.2
294.8
326.7
332.2
360.9
383.1
Historical and Projected Financials
Pokémon
CAGR
98-07
6.4%
1.5%
3.4%
CAGR
07-10
8.9%
2.4%
5.5%
EBITDA ($m)
Margin %
6.0
2.5%
28.1
12.2%
98.9
26.4%
126.3
28.9%
39.7
13.2%
27.4
9.5%
21.9
7.4%
21.5
7.3%
5.6
1.9%
23.2
7.1%
32.8
9.1%
38.4
10.0%
25.7
7.7%
21
0
30
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
ADJUSTED Case Key Assumptions
Current Business Dynamics
CONFECTIONERY
ENTERTAINMENT
Key Underlying Assumptions
0
200
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
Base Business
New Products
North American Gross Sales Evolution
0
50
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
Product Portfolio Evolution (1)
Existing Products
New Products
0
150
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
U.S. Sports Gross Sales Evolution
WizKids Gross Sales and Margin Evolution (2)
Projected growth assumes continued but less aggressive growth of U.S. Sports business
Implied
reversal of market decline of the U.S. Sports Trading Cards
market in the
projected period
Successful
turnaround of WizKids is central to achieving projected
growth and margin
targets
0%
15%
Projected growth is almost entirely predicated on new product launches
Vertigo
(launched recently) and other products currently under various
stages of
development
Vertigo
is
still projected to become one of the largest products in Topps
portfolio
over the projected period, but to a lesser extent
Implies one of the most successful launches in Topps history
___________________________
1.
North American market; Gross Sales for existing products are as of FY2007; Gross Sales for new products are as of FY2010.
2.
Line indicates EBITDA Margin by segment, which is after the allocation of Direct OH but before the allocation of Indirect OH.
22
Valuation
23
Summary Considerations On Value
Valuation
The $9.75 cash offer offers stockholders certainty of value at attractive valuation multiples and premium.
The proposed transaction offers investors certainty of value
$9.75 per share cash offer
High
probability of closing shortly after stockholders approval (HSR approval
and all other antitrust regulatory approvals already
obtained)
High implied valuation multiples relative to:
Historical trading multiples of Topps
Comparable trading companies
Comparable transactions
Favorable premium relative to the unaffected share price
Significant market speculation on a potential sale in the months leading to the announcement
Unusually high level of equity contribution enabled the attractive price received
High equity contribution of $191m (54% of acquisition financing)
The $9.75 offer is at the top of the valuation range implied by a break-up scenario
Significant value leakage in a break-up (tax, severance costs, fees, other separation costs)
Lack of credible guidance from analysts estimates
24
Historical Stock Price Performance
Valuation
Historical 5-Year Stock Price Performance
3/1/2002
10/15/2002
5/30/2003
1/15/2004
8/30/2004
4/15/2005
11/30/2005
7/14/2006
3/2/2007
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
0
500
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Price
Volume
Volume Traded
Topps Co.
OFFER: $9.75
MAX: $11.00
(Mar 1, 2002)
MIN: $6.99
(Sep 19, 2005)
June 21, 2005
Announced
retention
of Lehman Brothers to
explore strategic
alternatives
including
sale of Confectionery
business
September 12, 2005
Terminated
sale of
Confectionery
business
Announced
restructuring plan
July 28, 2006
Announced
settlement of
proxy contest with
Pembridge
Significant
volatility in the last
two years driven by
events/market rumors on a
potential sale of parts/whole
of the Company
$10.94
high (June 21,
2005) on announced
retention of Lehman
Brothers and
potential sale
of Confectionery
$8.92
(-18.5% drop in share
price from June 21) on
announced termination of
sale process (Sep 12, 2005)
Minimum
price level of
$6.99 for the last 5 years
reached one week later
Steady
rise in share price
since the settlement of the
proxy contest in July
2006
Average
closing price of
$8.02 for the 2-week period
that preceded the 2006
AGM (July 28, 2006) and
the concurrent
announcement of the proxy
settlement
November 11, 2003
Terminated
discussions for the
acquisition of certain
brands of The Foreign
Candy Company
September 23, 2004
Reported
Q2 FY05
EPS of $0.09 vs.
$0.13 the prior year
03/06/07
Announcement of
Transaction
1,000
25
Analysis of Premium Market Speculation
Valuation
1-Year Stock Performance
+12.2%
share price appreciation since July 2006
(1)
driven by market speculation on a potential sale in the
months leading to
the announcement of the merger.
Considering
that management is waging a fierce proxy
battle with dissident
shareholders [
] who would like to
see the company sold, provides
reason to believe that the
breakup and sale of the company could
occur
CL King, 06/28/06
We
expect some major changes over the next 12 months
[
] we think Topps
should consider either selling the
whole company, selling one of the two
divisions,
separating the two divisions [
] or possibly taking public
part, if not all, of one of the two divisions
Jefferies & Co., 07/28/06
Shares
of Topps have recently (and quickly) surpassed
our public market value, we
think largely due to the Full
Value Committee members [
] being
elected to the Board
of Directors [
] the serious evaluation of
strategic
options are greater than they ever have been before
Jefferies & Co., 09/21/06
[
]
reasonable probability that the company is put up
for sale at some point
6-18 months from now
CL King, 09/28/06
1
2
3
4
___________________________
1.
Share
price appreciation from the average closing price of $8.02 for the 2-week
period that preceded the concurrent announcement of the settlement of the proxy
contest with Pembridge prior to the 2006
AGM (July 28, 2006) to the $9.00
closing price of March 2, 2007.
06/01/06
07/26/06
09/19/06
11/14/06
01/08/07
03/05/07
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
$9.00
$9.50
$10.00
1
4
3
08/25/07
A.Ajdler,
T.Brog, J.Jones
and A. Shorin are elected
to the Board
2
07/28/06
Announced
settlement
of proxy contest
Offer Price: $9.75
+12.2% Appreciation (1)
+21.1% Premium
03/06/07
Announcement of
Transaction
26
Equity Value ($m)
222.7
382.3
409.9
427.1
358.4
382.4
363.4
319.1
385.6
EV ($m)
196.8
306.5
251.1
306.0
244.1
288.6
257.0
237.6
304.0
EBITDA ($m)
142.7
151.5
6.0
28.1
98.9
126.3
39.7
27.4
21.9
21.5
5.6
23.2
Historical Trading Multiples
Valuation
Analysis of Historical Trading Multiples
___________________________
NOTE:
Source: Company filings, Management projections; Analysis based on FY end
financials; Median is calculated on all values, including those not shown for
clarity of the representation; Share price for
historical FY
financials is the average share price for the 2 weeks following the
announcement of FY results, except for FY07 (Offer) where the share price
corresponds to the $9.75 offer.
0.63x
0.86x
0.82x
0.57x
1.02x
0.84x
0.98x
0.87x
0.81x
0.93x
0.00x
0.25x
0.50x
0.75x
1.00x
EV/Net Sales
EV/EBITDA
1.25x
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
(Offer)
Pokémon
Median
0.84x
7.0x
3.1x
2.0x
7.7x
8.9x
13.2x
11.9x
13.1x
0.0x
4.0x
8.0x
12.0x
16.0x
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
(Offer)
NM
(25.1x)
NM
(42.3x)
Pokémon
Median
8.9x
Multiples implied by the $9.75 offer are at a premium vs. historical trading levels of Topps stock.
Limited value potential to stockholders from successful but one-off franchises like Pokémon.
Reversal of Pokémon returns and one-off nationwide Wal-Mart promotion of Baby Bottle Pop
Pokémon
The
$9.75 offer compares very
favorably with Topps
historical
trading multiples
EV/Sales
of 0.93x vs.
Median of 0.84x
EV/EBITDA
of 13.1x vs.
Median of 8.9x
Successful
but one-off
franchises (e.g.
Pokémon)
have a very limited impact on
value to stockholders
The
incremental EBITDA
is not valued at the same
multiple of the Company
Treated
like one-off
contribution to cash rather
than incremental ability to
generate future earnings
and cash flow
27
15.7x
15.4x
13.6x
12.4x
12.0x
11.5x
11.2x
11.0x
11.0x
10.9x
10.2x
10.1x
10.0x
9.6x
13.1x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA
15.0x
20.0x
($9.75 Offer)
Median
11.0x
Comparable Trading Companies
Valuation
CONFECTIONERY Comparable Trading Companies
The
$9.75 offer implies a significant premium vs. comparable trading companies,
despite Toppss Confectionery
and Entertainment businesses being
substantially smaller and less diversified than public
peers/competitors.
___________________________
NOTE:
Source: Company filings, Brokers Notes, Factset; Share prices as of March
2, 2007 except for Topps, where the share price corresponds to the $9.75 offer;
Calculation of the Median includes U.S.
Companies only; LTM
financials except for Lindt (FY2007 ending June 2007).
22.9x
18.6x
11.3x
9.7x
8.3x
6.2x
5.2x
13.1x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA
25.0x
($9.75 Offer)
Median
9.7x
ENTERTAINMENT Comparable Trading Companies
Lack
of comparable trading
companies for Topps as a
whole
Identified
separate public
comparables for the
Confectionery and
Entertainment businesses
Comparable
trading
companies are larger and
more diversified than Topps
businesses
Stronger brands
Higher margins
Higher-growth
categories
and/or geographic markets
The
$9.75 offer compares very
favorably
28
17.0x
8.5x
12.8x
12.8x
14.8x
10.6x
22.6x
13.1x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
EV/EBITDA
20.0x
25.0x
N/A
N/A
($9.75 Offer)
Median
12.8x
Comparable Transactions
Valuation
CONFECTIONERY Comparable Transactions
The
$9.75 offer implies multiples that compare very favorably to comparable
transactions, both for the
Confectionery business and for the Entertainment
business.
___________________________
NOTE:
Source: Company filings, press news; Calculation of the Median includes U.S.
Companies only; EV/EBITDA multiples based on trailing EBITDA; Calculation of
Median for Confectionery excludes the
Wrigley/Kraft
Confectionery and the Cadbury/Adams transactions.
Entertainment Comparable Transactions
Perfetti/
Van Melle
(Jan01)
CSM/
Socalbe
(Apr01)
Cadbury/
Dandys
(Sep02)
Cadbury/
Adams
(Dec02)
Wrigley/
Joyco
(Jan04)
Tootsie/
Concord
(Aug04)
Wrigley/
Kraft Conf.
(Nov04)
CVC/
CSM Conf.
(Dec04)
Perfetti/
Chupa Chups
(Jul06)
8.5x
7.8x
3.4x
7.5x
7.2x
7.6x
7.5x
7.0x
5.0x
3.9x
10.6x
8.7x
13.1x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
($9.75 Offer)
Median
7.5x
Dorel/
Safety 1st
(Apr00)
JAKKS/
Toymax
(Feb02)
RC2/
Learning
(Feb03)
JAKKS/
Play Along
(Apr04)
RC2/
First
(Jun04)
RC2/
Mantis
(Jun04)
Bandai/
Namco
(May05)
Tomy/
Takara
(May05)
Mega Bloks/
Rose Art
(Jun05)
Vista/
Famosa
(Aug05)
Carlyle/
Britax
(Sep05)
JAKKS/
Creative
(Jan06)
Philips/
Avent
(May06)
Mustang/
Vermont
(May05)
Mattel/
Radica
(Jul06)
MGA/
Little Tikes
(Sep06)
Lack
of comparable
transactions for Topps as a
whole
Identified
separate
comparable transactions for
the Confectionery and
Entertainment businesses
Most
Confectionery
transactions involve targets
that are larger, more
diversified and with stronger
market positions than Topps
Most
Entertainment
transactions involve targets
similar in size and
competitive
positioning to Topps
The
$9.75 offer compares very
favorably
29
Break-Up Value Considered But Not Practical
Valuation
Analysis of BreakUp Value
The $9.75 offer is at the top of the valuation range implied by a break-up scenario.
___________________________
NOTES:
Source: Company filings, management projections as per the Adjusted Case
discussed in the Business Risks section of this document;
Management projections as per the Management Case return a
break-up
value range of $8.85 to $10.10 per share; Allocation of Indirect OH according
to management estimates; Net Cash position is as of March 3, 2007.
($ per Share)
$10.00
$9.87
$8.66
$5.00
$0.00
Confectionery
Entertainment
Breakage Costs
Enterprise Value
Net Cash
Equity Value
OFFER: $9.75
Confectionery
and
Entertainment businesses
valued on the basis of
comparable
transactions
1.25x-1.50x
EV/Sales for
Confectionery
7.0x-8.5x
EV/EBITDA for
Entertainment
Significant
value leakage due
to breakage costs
Conservatively
estimated
$20m-$30m total value loss
($0.51-$0.76 per share)
Includes
severance costs,
taxes, fees and other
separation expenses
Tax
basis of Confectionery
constrains the structuring
flexibility of a
break-up
Assumes
best-case concurrent
sale of Confectionery and
Entertainment
If
not concurrent,
remaining business likely to
struggle as public
company
Potential
negative value
implications
30
Consensus Estimates ?
Valuation
Historical Share Price and Evolution of Target Prices
___________________________
Source: Factset; Bloomberg; Reported data points reflect changes in target Price, Recommendation or both.
1.
Initial data point for Jefferies & Co. (03/01/2004, Not Rated, $11.00) not represented in the graph for clarity of representation.
Jefferies & Co.
Wedbush Morgan
Morgan Joseph
CL King
11/1/2004
2/3/2005
5/9/2005
8/12/2005
11/15/2005
2/17/2006
5/24/2006
8/25/2006
11/30/2006
3/5/2007
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
$12.00
$13.00
$14.00
Share Price
9/29/06
(Hold / $10.25)
11/22/05
(Buy / $9.60)
9/21/06
(Hold / $9.00)
1/6/06
(Buy / $9.00)
6/28/05
(Hold / $9.60)
11/8/04
(Hold / $10.92)
1/17/07
(Strong Buy / $12.00)
12/14/06
(Buy / $11.00)
6/17/05
(Strong Buy / $14.00)
9/12/05
(Underperform / $7.50)
12/20/05
(Accumulate / $8.50)
4/6/06
(Accumulate / $11.00)
9/7/05
(Neutral / $14.00)
3/1/04 (1)
(NR / $11.00)
The
limited sell-side analyst coverage and the significant volatility of their
recommendations and target prices
makes it difficult to assess value
potential on the basis of analyst consensus.
03/06/07
Announcement of
Transaction
31
The Process
32
Background To The Merger
The transaction is the result of an extensive and thorough process that started over two years ago.
The $9.75 offer by Tornante/MDP is the ONLY binding and fully-financed offer received.
The Process
2004
2005
2006
2007
Strategic Review
Confectionery Sale Process
Sale Process
Tornante/MDP Transaction
Unsolicited
Approach
by Upper Deck
February 2005
Lehman
Brothers
appointed
Begin
sale of
Confectionery
September 2005
End
of Confectionery
sale process
Launch
of
restructuring
August 2005
Parthenon
presents
findings
to Board
March 6, 2007
Announced
transaction with
Tornante/ MDP
May 2006
Topps
receives
unsolicited
approaches
Buyer
A, Buyer
B, Tornante/MDP
May 24, 2007
Submitted
unsolicited
indication of
interest
Began
diligence
review
August 2006
Dissenting
stockholders
elected to the
Board
Jun-Nov 2006
Buyer
A (Jun06)
and Buyer B
(Nov06) decline
continued interest
in Topps
Proxy I
Proxy II
Proxy III
July 2004
Parthenon
retained
to
perform strategic
review
33
Go-Shop
April 14, 2007
End
of Go-Shop
period
No
superior offers
emerged
June 13, 2007
Still
NO proof of
financing
Contractual
issues
still unresolved
(regulatory risk,
break-up fee)
The Process
The 2005 Confectionery Sale Process
In
2004, Topps retained strategic consulting firm Parthenon to conduct a strategic
review of Topps' domestic operations and
develop opportunities to increase
stockholders value
In February 2005, Lehman Brothers was engaged to study various strategic alternatives, including sale of all or parts of Topps
No logical buyer for the whole Company could be identified due to diverse nature of its businesses
Conducted
a sale process for the Confectionery business with an eye towards doing the
same with the Entertainment business, if
the process was successful
Partially motivated by recent industry consolidation and expectation of significant interest from industry participants
At the time, Confectionery had stronger financial performance and represented the majority of value
Nine of the parties approached conducted various degrees of due diligence
Only two strategic bidders made preliminary non-binding offers at $120-160m and $275m, respectively
Subsequent to additional diligence review, both declined further interest
Feedback from potential buyers made clear that several factors rendered the business unattractive
(i) Negative trends in financial performance; (ii) small size of brands; and (iii) unattractive dynamics of Lollipop segment
In
September 2005, announced termination of sale and launch of restructuring
program developed by Parthenon
and Topps
management
34
The Process
The Sale Process
In May and June 2006, Topps received unsolicited approaches from Bidder A, Bidder B and Tornante/MDP to acquire all shares
Decision of the Board to let bidders conduct diligence review of the Company
View toward receiving a firm offer and negotiate a Go-Shop right
Alternative approaches were contemplated:
Auction process and/or public announcement to solicit broadest interest
Deemed
unattractive in light of: (i) limited interest of potential bidders in recently
attempted sale of Confectionery business;
(ii) declining financial
performance of Confectionery business; (iii) absence of logical strategic buyer
for entirety of Topps;
(iv) low operating profit to support debt in a
leveraged transaction; (v) potential tax impact of separate sale of
Confectionery
and Entertainment businesses; (vi) the Boards belief that it
was widely known in the industry that Topps was for sale;
and (vii) the
potential impact of a failed auction on the Company's ongoing restructuring
effort
A committee of the Board (the Ad Hoc Committee) was formed to oversee discussions with outside bidders
Committee
comprised of the objecting directors, Arnaud Ajdler and Timothy Brog, and the
two independent directors, Allan Feder
and Stephen Greenberg
Bidder A declined interest to further pursue the opportunity after a short diligence review of the Company
Bidder B conducted an extensive diligence review of Topps from June to November 2006
Indicated it was considering a cash offer of $7.50-$8.00, which the Board rejected in October 2006, as unattractive
An alternative offer to make a minority investment in exchange for Board representation was also rejected
In
November 2006, after additional discussions with management about cost savings
opportunities, Bidder B declared its bid
would not include a premium over
the current stock trading price ($8.73). Discussions with Bidder B were
subsequently
terminated
35
The Process
The Tornante/MDP Transaction
Tornante/MDP emerged as a very credible bidder through the sale process
Thorough due diligence review of the business
Their offer remained at price levels higher than those of other parties involved
On December 20, 2006, submitted an indication to acquire all of outstanding shares of Topps for $9.24 per share
The Board met on January 9, 2007 in order to evaluate the offer along with other strategic initiatives
Including:
(i) special dividend; (ii) self tender; (iii) 10b5-1 buyback; (iv) sale of the
Company at this time; (v) sale of the Company
in 2-3 years
Mr. Brog indicated to the Board that:
The
Ad Hoc Committee unanimously recommended a special dividend as Topps
stock price is not particularly cheap
and
the prevailing trading price (ranging from $8.91 to $9.08 since October
2006) did not justify a buyback
The Ad Hoc Committee was split as to whether to pursue a public sale
The
Board decided to reject the $9.24 offer and continue negotiations with
Tornante/MDP with a view to increasing price while
deferring any decision
on the payment of a special dividend
After extensive negotiations, Tornante/MDP increased their offer to $9.75 cash per share
On January 29, 2007, a Letter of Intent was signed outlining the key terms of the transaction
30-days exclusivity period to complete the due diligence review and submit binding and fully-financed offer
On March 5, 2007, the Board approved the merger agreement with Tornante/MDP
$9.75 per share cash offer
Fully-committed financing provided by Deutsche Bank
Permitted to pay a Q4 FY2007 dividend of up to $0.04 per share (effectively raising offer value to $9.79 per share)
40-day Go-Shop period to solicit superior proposals (from March 6 to April 14, 2007)
Reasonable break-up fees negotiated including lower break-up fee during Go-Shop period
36
The Go-Shop Process
The Process
During the Go-Shop period, Topps performed a thorough market check of Tornante/MDPs offer
Lehman Brothers contacted 107 potential buyers (strategic and financial), including all parties proposed by all Board members
72
parties declined interest due to: (i) high transaction price/multiples, (ii)
different strategic focus, (iii) limited interest for Topps
categories and (iv) limited interest for Topps brands; 34 parties did
not respond despite numerous attempted contacts
Five parties signed confidentiality agreements and conducted a due diligence review of Topps
No superior offer emerged
On April 12, 2007, Upper Deck, the principal Entertainment competitor, submitted a non-binding indication of interest
Attractive $10.75 per share cash price, but characterized by significant issues as compared to Tornante/MDPs offer:
Lack of ANY evidence as to the ability to finance the transaction
Substantial shifting of regulatory risk to Topps
$12m cap on liability in the event of breach of a definitive agreement
Topps advisors contacted Upper Deck to facilitate the resolution of what the Board perceived as key open issues
Need to provide evidence as to the ability to finance the transaction
Substantial perceived risk related to antitrust regulatory approvals
Despite numerous discussions with Topps advisors, Upper Deck failed to appropriately address the key open issues
On April 16, 2007, the Board determined that it could not declare Upper Deck an excluded party, despite the attractive price
Lack of committed financing and/or of ANY evidence as to the ability to finance the transaction
Rationale: Board deemed it reckless to risk existing offer without ANY information as to financing from Upper Deck
Upper Decks unwillingness to assume sufficient regulatory risk
Rationale:
Board believed that there was substantial risk that the transaction could be
delayed or prevented due to failure to
obtain antitrust regulatory
approvals
Inadequate $12m cap on liability in the event of breach of a definitive agreement or failure to close
Rationale: Unusual request for a strategic buyer, would effectively make the offer a $12m option on the Company
37
Managing Director, Crescendo Partners
Arnaud Ajdler
Founder and Portfolio Manager, Pembridge Value Opportunity Fund
Timothy Brog
Managing Director, Allen & Co. and previously Chairman of Fusient Media Ventures
Stephen Greenberg
Chairman and CEO, The Topps Company
Arthur Shorin
Executive Committee
Independent business consultant and previously CEO of Vitarroz Corporation
Allan Feder
Chairman, Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP and Director of W.R.Berkley Co. and Strategic Distribution
Jack Nusbaum
CEO, E&B Giftware and previously CEO of Riddell Sports
David Mauer
Managing Director, Allen & Co. and previously Chairman of Fusient Media Ventures
Stephen Greenberg
Background
Name
Independent business consultant and previously CEO of Vitarroz Corporation
Allan Feder
Lead Negotiator
Allan Feder
Independent business consultant and previously CEO of Vitarroz Corporation
Ad Hoc Committee
Corporate Governance
The Process
The process was driven at all times by key outside independent directors
38
Ad Hoc Committee: appointed on July 31, 2006
Responsible to manage discussions with potential bidders and provide recommendations to the Board
Rationale: Involve dissenting stockholders (Mr. Brog, Mr. Ajdler) in discussions/negotiations with bidders
Lead Negotiator: Allan Feder was appointed on January 25, 2007
Responsible to negotiate terms of a definitive agreement with Tornante/MDP
Rationale:
Serious concerns as to the effectiveness of the Ad Hoc Committee in conducting
negotiations - 2 out of 4
members (Mr. Brog and Mr. Ajdler) voted against
continuing discussions with Tornante/MDP and, in antagonism with the
Boards decision, were effectively stalling negotiations
As part of Board approval of the transaction, the Ad Hoc Committee was authorized to oversee the Go-Shop process
Executive Committee: appointed on March 13, 2007
Vested with power of the Board and responsibility to oversee the Go-Shop period
Rationale:
Board believed that Mr. Brog and Mr. Ajdler could not adequately represent
stockholders interests during Go-
Shop: (i) publicly-stated opposition
to the merger; (ii) Mr. Ajdlers stated intention to kill
the deal, take the company over
The full Board retained power to determine superior proposal
Unsolicited Approach of Upper Deck
The Process
39
On May 24, 2007, Topps received an unsolicited approach from Upper Deck to acquire Topps for $10.75 per share
Accompanied by highly confident letter
NOT a commitment to provide financing
Financing subject to significant number of material conditions, many of which were absent from the Tornante-MDP transaction
Completion by the lender of due diligence on Topps AND on Upper Deck
Internal bank approvals
Absence of a material adverse change with respect to either Topps OR Upper Deck
Receipt of ALL third party consents
Absence of certain pending litigation
Receipt of solvency and other opinions
Material outstanding issues existed, similar to those that existed at the time of the Go Shop period
Availability of committed financing
Completion of due diligence review
Unwillingness to assume sufficient risk associated with a failure to obtain regulatory approval
Insistence of Upper Deck to limit its liability under any definitive agreement
The Company and its advisors promptly began discussions with Upper Deck to see if a superior proposal could be reached
Topps sought and obtained a waiver from Tornante/MDP under the merger agreement to engage in discussions with Upper Deck
Upper Deck and its advisors conducted due diligence review of the Company
Topps
has promptly provided to Upper Deck and/or its advisors all the due diligence
material that was provided to other bidders as
well as additional due
diligence material that they had requested
Unsolicited Approach of Upper Deck (contd)
The Process
40
On
June 5, 2007, Upper Deck filed a lawsuit to seek release from its standstill
obligation under the confidentiality agreement
with Topps
The
confidentiality agreement with Upper Deck is substantially the same as the
confidentiality agreements signed by
Tornante/MDP as well as those of the
other four parties who signed confidentiality agreements during the Go
Shop period
As of June 13, 2007, Upper Deck has not yet appropriately addressed the key outstanding issues
Has not provided ANY evidence as to the ability to finance the transaction
In contradiction with original indications on timing and to what declared as part of the hearing of June 11, 2007
Although
Upper Deck has been involved in the transaction since March 6, 2007 and despite
the several requests from Topps
and its advisors, Upper Deck has not yet
provided ANY information on financing
Unwillingness to assume sufficient risk associated with a failure to obtain regulatory approval
If Upper
Deck is as confident as it appears to be in communications with Topps and the
Delaware court regarding antitrust
issues, it should be prepared to assume
risk as proposed by Topps in order to protect its stockholders
Insistence to limit its liability under any definitive agreement
Why You Should Reject Crescendo Arguments
41
Key Considerations
Why You Should Reject Crescendo Arguments
We believe Crescendos motives are self-serving and NOT in the best interest of all of Topps stockholders
Stated intention to take over the Company WITHOUT paying a premium to stockholders
Crescendo does NOT possess any relevant operational experience
Eric Rosenfeld of Crescendo has little or no prior experience in the industries in which Topps competes
Focus on Canadian investments in the Information Technology and Defense/Aerospace sectors
Arnaud Ajdler of Crescendo lacks any meaningful track record
Crescendo FAILS to present ANY details of its proposed turnaround plan
Unspecified growth and margin expansion initiatives
Arnaud Ajdler has not offered a single operational proposal during his entire tenure as a Board member
Crescendo has not offered any new operational proposals
Undefined timing of the plan
Crescendos proxy arguments lack merit. For example:
Dutch
Auction:
previously rejected by the objecting directors and likely negligible share
price appreciation with potential negative
price impact due to the large
size of the proposed buyback
EBITDA
Margin:
Topps is a sub-scale player, lacks pricing power and is dependent on one third
party manufacturer on an exclusive
basis. A comparison to companies of the
likes of Hershey, Wrigley, Cadbury Schweppes, Mattel, Hasbro is meaningless
Sale
of Company at beginning of turnaround:
Topps turnaround program was initiated in September 2005 and many of the
structural and organizational
benefits have already positively impacted
FY2007 results. Sales and margin improvements are also already reflected in
management projections
Optionality
value of an Entertainment hit:
As shown in the trading history analysis (ref. Page 27), one-off franchises
(e.g. Pokémon) have a very
limited impact on value to
stockholders
If Crescendo TRULY believes that Topps will be worth $16.00-$18.00 per share, why dont they make an offer for the Company?
Topps Board is committed to maximizing value to shareholders and would welcome an approach at the suggested price level
42
Unlikely Value Creation From Dutch Auction Buyback
Why You Should Reject Crescendo Arguments
Modified Dutch Auction Tender Share Buybacks 2006-2007 YTD
Crescendos
proposed buyback is at the top end of precedent transactions in terms of size.
Likely negligible share price
appreciation with potential negative price
impact due to size.
___________________________
NOTE: Modified Dutch Auction tender share buybacks for companies with market capitalization pre announcement of up to $5.0bn.
Inappropriate
structuring questions the
ability to execute the buyback proposed by
Crescendo
Proposed $110m buyback represents approximately 28% of Topps market capitalization vs. 9.3% median for historical transactions
Crescendos
claim that significant value can
be extracted by
signaling under-pricing is
unsubstantiated
Dutch
auction buybacks result in modest
price appreciation (median 1.9% one
month post expiration)
Historical transactions with relative size in excess of 30% resulted in share price declines of 10% to 15%
The
largest 10 historical transactions by relative size
resulted in a median
share price decline of
9.4%
Sudden
and unexplained change of opinion
of Arnaud Ajdler
Rejected
buyback in January 2007 as
prevailing trading price ($8.91 to $9.08
since October 2006) did not justify a
buyback
43
Tender Announcement
Tender Execution
Aftermarket
Performance
Today's date
Mkt. Cap
Size Relative to:
Premium Range
Prem.
03/05/07
Celanese Corp
$4,654
7.1%
7.4x
-1.2%
7.7%
1.3%
1.3x
7.7%
11.2%
25.0%
01/29/07
Atlas America
$992
10.1%
16.3x
1.4%
5.3%
7.7%
12.4x
5.3%
(29.8%)
(23.3%)
12/18/06
Weight Watchers International
$5,006
8.5%
29.3x
-0.3%
14.6%
8.5%
29.3x
14.6%
13.4%
(0.3%)
12/12/06
Scotts Miracle-Gro
$3,476
7.4%
11.5x
-4.5%
9.3%
6.7%
10.5x
7.2%
(6.4%)
(13.8%)
12/06/06
CBRL Group Inc
$1,339
17.2%
8.8x
-2.2%
7.2%
17.3%
8.8x
7.2%
8.9%
11.0%
11/28/06
Liberty Global Inc.
$5,081
2.7%
8.6x
-2.0%
10.9%
2.7%
8.6x
10.9%
12.2%
9.9%
11/21/06
Jack in the Box Inc
$2,195
15.3%
14.4x
-6.1%
4.1%
6.5%
6.1x
4.1%
4.3%
6.1%
11/16/06
Charter Financial Corp
$1,041
5.0%
97.1x
-18.8%
-1.8%
2.5%
49.1x
-1.8%
(5.1%)
(9.3%)
10/17/06
Wendy's International Inc
$4,075
18.8%
11.3x
-4.5%
4.1%
19.0%
11.4x
3.4%
(2.8%)
(3.6%)
09/06/06
Lawson Products
$343
11.1%
100.5x
-1.7%
12.7%
5.4%
48.9x
12.7%
15.3%
33.3%
09/05/06
World Air Holdings Inc
$217
9.3%
13.6x
4.5%
10.3%
9.3%
13.6x
6.9%
5.1%
(10.7%)
08/31/06
Birner Dental Management Services
$46
7.6%
122.9x
-1.4%
57.7%
9.2%
149.7x
22.5%
11.2%
5.5%
08/28/06
Brinker International Inc.
$3,076
13.6%
7.2x
-4.3%
8.6%
1.5%
0.8x
63.0%
9.8%
25.3%
08/28/06
Credit Acceptance Corp
$932
10.5%
44.6x
0.5%
13.0%
10.5%
44.6x
13.0%
12.1%
10.5%
08/11/06
Sonic Corp
$1,685
29.8%
38.8x
-1.2%
11.5%
18.6%
24.2x
16.6%
20.6%
20.0%
08/07/06
Acxiom Corp
$2,178
12.6%
19.0x
2.1%
10.2%
12.6%
19.0x
10.2%
3.3%
1.6%
07/14/06
Beverly Hills Bancorp Inc.
$195
12.9%
37.4x
-1.3%
4.2%
12.9%
37.4x
-1.3%
(2.9%)
(9.0%)
07/06/06
Laidlaw International, Inc.
$2,560
15.4%
24.5x
-2.7%
8.8%
15.9%
25.4x
2.7%
(0.6%)
5.7%
05/09/06
Cumulus Media Inc
$693
19.3%
22.4x
-0.7%
12.8%
19.3%
22.4x
3.8%
(5.5%)
(18.8%)
04/27/06
Syms Corp
$265
22.4%
180.4x
-5.1%
6.8%
2.9%
23.5x
6.8%
5.3%
12.1%
04/04/06
Wilber Corp
$121
5.8%
490.4x
-3.9%
10.7%
4.8%
404.5x
10.7%
4.1%
1.9%
03/24/06
Camden National Corp.
$289
10.0%
66.9x
5.1%
15.9%
11.7%
78.3x
12.3%
13.8%
15.5%
03/17/06
CBRL Group Inc
$2,217
35.4%
16.4x
-5.2%
3.8%
35.4%
16.4x
-5.2%
(9.1%)
(15.1%)
03/08/06
Brink's Co
$2,855
17.0%
18.2x
-2.3%
8.0%
17.7%
19.0x
5.3%
4.2%
11.7%
02/28/06
Alpine Group Inc
$42
38.5%
149.2x
-8.3%
7.0%
39.6%
153.5x
3.2%
(11.6%)
(15.9%)
02/20/06
A. Schulman Inc
$762
28.4%
45.0x
-11.6%
1.1%
6.3%
9.9x
1.1%
(4.0%)
1.8%
02/07/06
Central Vermont Public Service
$252
18.3%
54.9x
10.1%
20.8%
18.3%
54.9x
20.8%
3.7%
(9.8%)
Mean
15.2%
61.4x
-2.4%
10.6%
12.0%
47.5x
9.8%
3.0%
2.5%
Median
12.9%
24.5x
-2.0%
8.8%
9.3%
22.4x
7.2%
4.2%
1.9%
% Change in Price
To Price
@ Annc.
1-Week
Size Relative To:
Shares
O/S
ADTV
Shares
O/S
ADTV
High
Low
Annc.
Date
Company
Annc.
($m)
From Annc. to:
1-Month
Crescendos Plan Is Vague And Offers Nothing New
Why You Should Reject Crescendo Arguments
Crescendos
turnaround plan is vague and many of the initiatives have already been
successfully
implemented by Topps incumbent management.
CONFECTIONERY Business opportunities
COGS reduction is based on faulty comparison (implied 10% cost reduction opportunity to bring in line with peers):
Unlike peers, Topps is dependent on one third-party manufacturer for the sourcing of most products on an exclusive basis
Cost improvement through sourcing initiatives already included in management plan
Relocation of gum production to low-cost country (Mexico) has already been implemented
Companys key cost drivers (i.e. plastic, sugar, labor, foreign currency exchange) have been moving in the wrong direction
Crescendo initiatives not specified or defined
Unspecified top-line opportunities
Marketing spending improvement not defined
Initiatives aimed at broadening distribution are currently underway, unclear additional proposals by Crescendo
Improved new product development process already implemented and reflected in management projections
ENTERTAINMENT Business opportunities
Expansion into trading games and interactive card games currently being implemented
Product innovation (high end collectibles, kids) is already at the core of Topps management plan and presently being implemented
Unspecified licensing initiatives
Overhead opportunities
Overhead oportunities were identified by Topps management and presented to potential bidders
Replacement of Mainframe/ERP system is currently being implemented
44
And Its Margin and Price Expectations Are Unrealistic
Why You Should Reject Crescendo Arguments
Crescendos
margin
and price per share expectations reflect a lack
of understanding of the Companys strategic
positioning and industry
economics.
___________________________
1.
2.
3.
Assuming a residual Net Debt of $12.0m by the end of FY2009, corresponding to the cumulated FY2008 and FY2009 difference in EBITDA between the Management Case and the Adjusted Case.
Assuming a $110m buyback at $10.25 per share and participation by stockholders proportional to their holdings in Topps; Assuming no residual Net Debt by the end of FY2009 and a 14.0% discount rate, the mid-point of the range used by Lehman Brothers for the Management Case in its fairness opinion.
Assuming a $110m buyback at $10.25 per share and participation by stockholders proportional to their holdings in Topps; Assuming a residual Net Debt of $12.0m by the end of FY2009 and a 12.5% discount rate, the mid-point of the range used by Lehman Brothers for the Adjusted Case in its fairness opinion.
45
Crescendos
expectation that Topps can achieve profitability in line with companies of the
likes of Hershey, Wrigley, Cadbury
Schweppes is at best unrealistic:
Topps Confectionery is a sub-scale player in a consolidating industry where it lacks pricing power
Reliance on placement at highly competitive front-end points of sale requires significant investment in slotting fees
Lack of scale results in higher % incidence of advertising costs
Environment of increasing raw material prices
Increasing pressure from retailers and larger competitors to secure and maintain shelf-space
Reliance
on one third-party manufacturer for the sourcing of most confectionery products
constrains ability to aggressively reduce
product costs
Crescendos target $16 to $18 share price in two years is calculated on the basis of aggressive and questionable assumptions
Implies a forward P/E of 18.6x to 20.9x, well above where significantly larger and stronger peers trade
Assumes successful execution of an improperly structured buyback
Relative size is well in excess of successful precedent transactions; negative price impact for large historical buybacks
Assumes
that by FY2009 the market will give Topps full credit for the projected $51.2m
FY2010 EBITDA (+25% growth vs.
EBITDA level of FY2009; +30% growth CAGR
FY2007-FY2010) of the aggressive Management Case
Projections as per the Adjusted Case under similar assumptions return a price in two years of $11.64-$12.98(1)
The target $16.00-$18.00 share price in two years corresponds to a current $11.75-$12.87 per share value to stockholders(2)(3)
Results for the Adjusted Case correspond to a current $9.48-$10.26 per share value to stockholders
Crescendo Statements Raise Questions On Credibility
Why You Should Reject Crescendo Arguments
46
Crescendos
inconsistent statements raise questions about their credibility and ultimately
highlight their true
intentions: to take over Topps without paying a
premium to shareholders
In November 2006, Arnaud Ajdler suggested that a price target of $10.00 per share, if expressed to a potential acquirer, might be so high as to dissuade bidders
In
their proxy documentation, Crescendo now claims a value for Topps of
$16.00-$18.00 in two years on the basis of the plan of
Topps
incumbent management
As
of December 2007, Arnaud Ajdler believed that an M&A transaction for Topps
would net a valuation of between $9.50 and
$10.50 per share
In their proxy documentation, Crescendo now claims that the $9.75 consideration of Tornante/MDPs transaction is inadequate
In
January 2007, Arnaud Ajdler recommended a special dividend in lieu of a buyback
because the prevailing trading price (ranging
from $8.91 to $9.08 since
October 2006) did not justify a buyback
In their proxy documentation, Crescendo is now proposing a $110m buyback at a price of $10.00-$10.50
In
his deposition of May 25, 2007, Arnaud Ajdler declared that he would support
negotiations with Upper Deck at a $10.75 price
level
In
their proxy documentation, Crescendo now claims that the Company is at the
beginning of its turnaround and a sale at this time
would let the buyers
reap the benefits of the turnaround at the expense of stockholders
In their proxy documentation, Crescendo now also claims that it intends to be a long term stockholder in Topps
Why Doesnt Crescendo Make An Offer For Topps?
Why You Should Reject Crescendo Arguments
The Topps Board is TRULY committed to maximizing value for all Topps stockholders Crescendo is not
Crescendo has made wild claims that Topps stock will be worth $16-$18 per share in two years
If Crescendo TRULY believes what they claim, it could make an offer to acquire Topps at a premium
Crescendo could pay a premium to Topps stockholders and enjoy the potential upside
At
the price level that Topps is worth to Crescendo, they could easily make an
offer above Tornante/MDPs offer and above the
indication of interest
of Upper Deck
The Topps Board would welcome a value-maximization offer by Crescendo at the price level that they have indicated
Ability and commitment to immediately facilitate diligence review and negotiation of the terms of a transaction
We believe Crescendo has not made an offer to acquire Topps because they are seeking to prevent stockholders from maximizing their investment in Topps in order to facilitate Crescendoown self-serving agenda
47
Conclusion
48
Board Recommendation
Conclusion
The
Board of Directors believes that the merger is in the best interest of
stockholders and therefore
recommends to vote FOR the proposed
transaction.
49
Managements successful restructuring was instrumental in receiving the attractive $9.75 price
Topps faces significant company-specific and broader industry challenges
The transaction offers stockholders certainty of value at attractive valuation multiples and premium
The
offer is the ONLY binding and fully-financed offer received as a result of an
extensive and thorough
process that started over two years ago
The 40-day Go-Shop period provided for a thorough market check of Tornante/MDPs offer
The
non-binding indication of interest received from Upper Deck is at an attractive
price level but key
fundamental issues have not been resolved yet (lack of
ANY evidence as to ability to finance, unwillingness to
take sufficient
regulatory risk, inadequate break-up fee for failure of Upper Deck to close)
Crescendos plan is vague and offers nothing new and its margin and price expectations are unrealistic
If Crescendo wants to take control of the Company, they should make a superior proposal