The retail industry shows promise this year due to subsiding inflation, which boosts household purchasing power and supports retail demand. Manufacturing has rebounded, highlighting economic strength and further fueling retail growth, with stable demand for consumer staples, household items, and even luxury goods.
Therefore, investors might consider investing in strong retail stocks such as Target Corporation (TGT), Tapestry Inc. (TPR), and J.Jill, Inc. (JILL). Despite recent declines over the past six months, these retail giants are primed for a strong comeback.
As we enter Q4, with holidays approaching, consumers flock to big-box outlets for food, gifts, and online purchases. Businesses respond by offering variety, convenience, and personalized experiences to meet changing demands, driving industry growth. The National Retail Federation forecasts retail sales will rise between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024, reaching $5.23 to $5.28 trillion.
Meanwhile, luxury brands are expanding physical stores, reinvesting in flagship locations, and exploring hospitality ventures. High-end malls attract luxury brands with low vacancy rates, offering stable retail environments. Hence, with rising disposable income and consumer demand for unique experiences, the global luxury goods market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2024 to 2030.
Considering these conducive trends, let’s examine the fundamentals of the three retail picks mentioned above.
Target Corporation (TGT)
TGT operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States. It offers apparel for women, men, boys, girls, toddlers, infants, and newborns, as well as jewellery, accessories, and shoes; beauty and personal care, baby gear, cleaning, paper products, and pet supplies.
On September 9, 2024, TGT announced The Cuddle Collab, its first exclusive pet collection featuring over 180 items inspired by pet influencers. The collection launches on September 21, 2024, with prices starting at $3, and includes accessories, toys, treats, and home décor for pets and their owners.
On June 24, 2024, TGT announced a partnership with Shopify to feature select Shopify merchants on Target Plus, its online marketplace. This collaboration will bring new brands and products to Target Plus and introduce some Shopify items to TGT’s stores nationwide.
In terms of the trailing-12-month Return on Common Equity, TGT’s 33.97% is 219.5% higher than the 10.63% industry average. Its 12.18% trailing-12-month Return on Total Capital is 75.1% higher than the 6.96% industry average. Likewise, its 1.97x trailing-12-month asset turnover ratio is 132.3% higher than the industry average of 0.85x.
For the second quarter, which ended on August 3, 2024, TGT's total revenue rose 2.7% year-over-year to $25.45 billion, and its operating income was $1.63 billion, up 36.6% over the prior-year quarter. The company’s net earnings and adjusted EPS stood at $1.19 billion and $2.57, respectively, representing increases of 42.7% and 42.4% year-over-year.
Street expects TGT's EPS and revenue for the quarter ending October 31, 2024, to increase 9.4% and 2.2% year-over-year to $2.30 and $25.96 billion, respectively. It surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters. Over the past year, the stock has gained 30.2% to close the last trading session at $156.49.
TGT's POWR Ratings reflect its strong fundamentals. It has an overall rating of A, equating to a Strong Buy in our proprietary rating system. The POWR Ratings assess stocks by 118 different factors, each with its own weighting.
It has a B grade for Value, Momentum, and Quality. Within the A-rated Grocery/Big Box Retailers industry, it is ranked #8 out of 37 stocks. To see TGT's ratings for Growth, Stability, and Sentiment, click here.
Tapestry Inc. (TPR)
TPR provides luxury accessories and branded lifestyle products internationally. The company operates in three segments: Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman.
In terms of the trailing-12-month levered FCF margin, TPR’s 13.89% is 173.1% higher than the 5.09% industry average. Its 18.83% trailing-12-month EBIT margin is 139.3% higher than the 7.87% industry average. Likewise, its 6.09% trailing-12-month Return on Total Assets is 46.2% higher than the industry average of 4.17%.
During the fourth quarter that ended on June 29, 2024, TPR’s net sales came in at $1.59 billion. Its gross profit rose marginally year-over-year to $1.19 billion. The company’s net income was reported at $159.30 million, or $0.68 per share. Moreover, as of June 29, 2024, its total assets stood at $13.40 billion, compared to $7.12 billion as of July 1, 2023.
Analysts expect TPR’s EPS for the quarter ending September 30, 2024, to increase 2.1% year-over-year to $0.95. Its revenue for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, is expected to rise 1.8% year-over-year to $1.51 billion. It surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. TPR’s stock has gained 41.7% over the past year to close the last trading session at $42.82.
It’s no surprise that TPR has an overall rating of B, which translates to a Buy in our proprietary POWR Ratings system.
It has a B grade for Quality. It is ranked #24 out of 59 stocks in the A-rated Fashion & Luxury industry. Beyond what we stated above, we also have given TPR grades for Growth, Value, Momentum, Stability, and Sentiment. Get all the TPR ratings here.
J.Jill, Inc. (JILL)
JILL is an omnichannel retailer of women’s apparel under the J.Jill brand. The company offers casual wear, athletic wear, loungewear, footwear, and accessories, including scarves and jewelry. The company markets its products through retail stores, websites, and catalogs.
In terms of the trailing-12-month net income margin, JILL’s 6.72% is 47% higher than the 4.57% industry average. Likewise, its 17.66% trailing-12-month EBITDA margin is 54.8% higher than the 11.41% industry average. Moreover, the stock’s 1.52x trailing-12-month asset turnover ratio is 53.7% higher than the 0.99x industry average.
JILL’s net sales for the fiscal second quarter that ended on August 3, 2024, were $155.24 million. The company’s adjusted income from operations was $24.94 million. Likewise, its adjusted net income and adjusted net income per share stood at $15.83 million and $1.05 per share, up 21% and 20.8% over the prior-year quarter. Additionally, its adjusted EBITDA came in at $30.19 million.
For the quarter ending October 31, 2024, JILL’s EPS is expected to increase 2.1% year-over-year to $0.80. Its revenue for the same quarter is expected to grow marginally year-over-year to $151.02 million. JILL surpassed the Street EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. Over the past six months, its stock has gained 3.4% to close the last trading session at $25.56.
JILL’s bright prospects are reflected in its POWR Ratings. It has an overall rating of B, equating to a Buy in our proprietary rating system.
JILL has an A grade for Quality and a B for Value. Within the Fashion & Luxury industry, it is ranked #6. To access JILL’s additional ratings for Growth, Momentum, Stability, and Sentiment, click here.
What To Do Next?
43 year investment veteran, Steve Reitmeister, has just released his 2024 market outlook along with trading plan and top 11 picks for the year ahead.
TGT shares were trading at $154.33 per share on Friday afternoon, down $2.16 (-1.38%). Year-to-date, TGT has gained 11.67%, versus a 20.28% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.
About the Author: Abhishek Bhuyan
Abhishek embarked on his professional journey as a financial journalist due to his keen interest in discerning the fundamental factors that influence the future performance of financial instruments.
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