Book Online or Call 1-855-SAUSALITO

Sign In  |  Register  |  About Sausalito  |  Contact Us

Sausalito, CA
September 01, 2020 1:41pm
7-Day Forecast | Traffic
  • Search Hotels in Sausalito

  • CHECK-IN:
  • CHECK-OUT:
  • ROOMS:

Six reasons why this was just a bear market rally

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity prices. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can be found here.



My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.



The latest signals of each model are as follows:
  • Ultimate market timing model: Sell equities*
  • Trend Model signal: Neutral*
  • Trading model: Bearish*
* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.


Something for everyoneDuring the recent bull and bear debate, Nautilus Research provided some historical analogs for both bulls and bears. Depending on what camp you are in, Nautilus had a market template for you.

I have been in the bear camp ever since this rally began (see Lessons from a study of past major bottoms). As the S&P 500 rally stalled and pulled back at the 200 dma, here are six reasons why the advance was likely a bear market rally and not the signal that a new bull had begun.

The full post can be found here.
Data & News supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Stock quotes supplied by Barchart
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions.
 
 
Photos copyright by Jay Graham Photographer
Copyright © 2010-2020 Sausalito.com & California Media Partners, LLC. All rights reserved.