Is the universe unfolding as it should? Most technical and sentiment indicators argue for a near-term double bottom in the S&P 500. The June bottom was the initial capitulation bottom. The market rallied and it is poised to weaken and re-test the old lows in the near future. That's when the new bull begins.
The new bull narrative sounds far too easy. Macro and fundamental factors argue for further downside potential. The Powell Fed is in a "whatever it takes" mode to tame inflation. The 2-year Treasury yield has been climbing relentlessly, which is an indication of rising market expectations of a terminal Fed Funds rate. Forward P/E valuations are becoming increasingly challenging even as the E in the P/E ratio declines ahead of a likely recession. If support at the June low doesn't hold, SPY faces a possible air pocket and a rapid fall to the 260-320 support zone, which represents considerable downside risk from current levels.
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A pending major market bottom? It sounds too easy!
September 17, 2022 at 13:56 PM EDT