CNN data reporter Harry Enten said Monday that non-college educated White voters have slightly shifted away from former President Trump over the last two election cycles, and that movement was likely keeping Vice President Kamala Harris "in the ball game."
"What‘s so interesting, because we’ve seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump’s direction, so you would think his core group, his base of support, would be doing the same. But in fact, it‘s moving a little bit away from him," Enten said.
Enten has also done reporting on other key voting demographics that have been shifting towards Trump over the last few cycles, such as Black voters and Hispanic voters. The data reporter pointed out that Trump won the non-college educated White voter group by 33 points in 2016, and by 31 points in 2020.
"The latest average of polls, he‘s only up by 27," Enten said. "Now that may not seem like a lot, but given that we‘re seeing these double-digit gains, say among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we‘re seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well. I think that’s a rather interesting development."
Enten said that the shift mattered because the non-college educated White voters make up 40% of the electorate nationally, but 51% of the electorate in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The three states have all been bellwethers since 2008; beginning with Barack Obama that year, the winners of those states have also won the presidential election.
"Again, you see it back in 2016, Donald Trump won by 25. You‘ll see a small movement in 2020, Donald Trump winning by 22, and look at that, where we are today, again, Trump is ahead, but his margins are smaller. And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts among smaller groups in the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris is still in the ball game right now," Enten said.
He added that Harris was losing "big league" among groups that make up a smaller portion of the electorate, but is "making it up" among bigger portions of the electorate.
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CNN's John Berman said the movement was interesting and noted that Trump was making gains among voters of color.
"White voters and non-college Whites and college Whites, especially, they make up a lion’s share of the electorate and so even if you’re seeing small movements among these groups, among non-college Whites, slightly larger among college Whites. It more than makes up or at least makes up for the movement among voters of color," Enten said.
Enten has also sounded the alarm on the idea that polling has historically underestimated Donald Trump in previous elections, which projected him losing soundly in both 2016 and 2020.
"If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win and – look at this – Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes," he said, comparing it to Harris’ 251 votes in this scenario.
