What Happened?
A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after President Trump announced a two-week suspension of attacks on Iran, resulting in a 17% drop in crude oil prices.
This geopolitical reprieve was expected to significantly lower the global risk premium, sparking a massive rally in the financial sector. Investors likely pivoted back to banks as the "risk-on" sentiment returned, buoyed by the prospect of a "double-sided" ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The banking sector also benefits from this stability through a reduction in credit risk and an improved outlook for global lending.
As energy-driven inflation fears subside due to falling oil prices, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates may ease. Furthermore, a calmer geopolitical climate typically spurs investment banking activity, including M&A and IPOs, as corporate confidence returned.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
- Regional Banks company Western Alliance Bancorporation (NYSE: WAL) jumped 4.9%. Is now the time to buy Western Alliance Bancorporation? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Regional Banks company Axos Financial (NYSE: AX) jumped 4.9%. Is now the time to buy Axos Financial? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
- Regional Banks company Live Oak Bancshares (NYSE: LOB) jumped 5%. Is now the time to buy Live Oak Bancshares? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Zooming In On Live Oak Bancshares (LOB)
Live Oak Bancshares’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 13 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 8 days ago when the stock gained 3.1% as reports indicated a potential end to military hostilities with Iran, easing investor concerns about geopolitical risk.
According to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump demonstrated a willingness to wind down the conflict, a development that would significantly lower global economic uncertainty. For the financial sector, a more stable environment often leads to stronger loan growth and improved credit quality.
Furthermore, an end to hostilities could result in lower energy prices, which in turn can boost consumer spending and business investment. These factors create a more favorable operating landscape for banks and other financial institutions, contributing to the broad-based rally seen in the sector.
Live Oak Bancshares is up 2.7% since the beginning of the year, but at $35.63 per share, it is still trading 14.7% below its 52-week high of $41.75 from February 2026. Despite the year-to-date gain, investors who bought $1,000 worth of Live Oak Bancshares’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at only $515.63.
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